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The European Journal of Public Health 2000 10(2):114-119; doi:10.1093/eurpub/10.2.114
© 2000 by European Journal of Public Health
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METHODS

Foresight in medicine

Lessons from three European Delphi studies

CLAUDIA WILD1, and HELGE TORGERSEN1

1Institute for Technology Assessment (ITA), Austrian Academy of Sciences Vienna, Austria

Correspondence: Claudia Wild, Dr. phil., Institute for Technology Assessment (ITA), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Strohgasse 45/3 Stock, A 1030 Vienna, Austria, tel. +43 1 515816589, fax +43 1 7109883, e-mail: cwild{at}oeaw.ac.at

Background: Foresight on future innovations in health care has become a serious matter of politics. Methods: The article analyses three recent technology foresight exercises (‘Delphi’) which also have implied health care technologies. A secondary analysis of the German and British Delphis provides general trends about innovations in medicine and sociomedical services. The Austrian Delphi focused on highly selected areas. Results: Despite different scopes, a homogenous picture emerges: in the context of demographic changes to come, cancer and dementia research and the development of materials for artificial organs are most relevant. Basic research receives less attention. Technological innovations in telecommunications and diagnostics (sensors) support sociomedical care at home, which will become more prominent. To contain costs, (cost-) effectiveness evaluations of health care technologies will gain importance. Conclusion: The challenge for health policy will not only be to react to technological innovations, but to steer and guide developments in a desirable direction at an early stage. Cooperation and coordination among all actors will become essential.

Keywords: Delphi innovation, early warning, foresight studies, health care technology assessment/HCTA, health policy


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