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The European Journal of Public Health Advance Access originally published online on April 8, 2009
The European Journal of Public Health 2009 19(4):424-427; doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckp042
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© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Infectious Diseases

Projection of the number of patients with tuberculosis in the Netherlands in 2030

Frank van Leth1,2, Nico A. Kalisvaart1, Connie G. M. Erkens1 and Martien W. Borgdoff1,2

1 KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation, The Hague, The Netherlands
2 Center for Infection and Immunity Amsterdam (CINIMA), Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Correspondence: Frank van Leth, KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation, Parkstraat 17, 2514 JD Den Haag, The Hague, The Netherlands, tel: +31 70 4270982, fax: +31 70 3584004, e-mail: vanlethf{at}kncvtbc.nl

Received January 9, 2009 , accepted March 6, 2009

Background: The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in The Netherlands has been declining for many years. For the purpose of planning future TB-control activities we estimated the number of TB patients in The Netherlands up to 2030. Methods: Statistical modelling for 5-year age groups up to 2030 distinguishing among Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source (survival model), non-Dutch patients (projection of the proportion of culture-positive patients among first generation immigrants) and Dutch patients infected by a non-Dutch source (fixed relation with the number of non-Dutch patients). Results: The number of TB patients is expected to decline to 877 in 2030. After 2010 declines may slow due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients. This increase cancels out the decrease of Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, 85% of all TB patients are expected to be non-Dutch. In the four largest counties and the rest of The Netherlands, this will be 89 and 76%, respectively. Conclusion: The decrease in TB incidence observed over many years may stall from 2010 onwards because of an estimated increase in non-Dutch TB patients. Given their disproportionate burden, future TB-control activities should prioritize the health of first-generation immigrants. Enhanced TB control in the countries of origin and new diagnostic tests to identify those at high risk of developing active TB could help in reducing further the TB incidence in the Netherlands. Future TB-control efforts must be organized in a flexible way to be able to incorporate changing epidemiological situations.

Keywords: immigrants, incidence, the Netherlands, tuberculosis, life table


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