Skip Navigation


The European Journal of Public Health Advance Access originally published online on August 19, 2009
The European Journal of Public Health 2009 19(5):516-520; doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckp119
This Article
Right arrow Full Text
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow All Versions of this Article:
19/5/516    most recent
ckp119v2
ckp119v1
Right arrow E-letters: Submit a response
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me when E-letters are posted
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Lugnér, A. K.
Right arrow Articles by Postma, M. J.
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Lugnér, A. K.
Right arrow Articles by Postma, M. J.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Infectious Diseases

Investment decisions in influenza pandemic contingency planning: cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral drugs

Anna K. Lugnér1 and Maarten J. Postma2

1 National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Epidemiology and Surveillance, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
2 Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE2), Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands

Correspondence: Anna K. Lugnér, RIVM, CIb/EPI, PO Box 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands, tel: +3130 274 8540, fax: +3130 274 4409, e-mail: anna.lugner{at}rivm.nl

Received June 4, 2009 , accepted July 17, 2009

Background: The threat of an influenza pandemic has led to stockpiling of antiviral drugs in order to mitigate a plausible outbreak. If the stockpile would be used in relation to the recent pandemic alert, an investment decision about renewing the stock for a possible subsequent pandemic is essential. The decision should include cost-effectiveness considerations. Methods: We constructed a cost-effectiveness analysis in the Dutch context, explicitly including risk of an outbreak. Outcomes from a dynamic transmission model, comparing an intervention with a non-intervention scenario, were input in our health economic calculations. Results: Stockpiling was cost-effective from the health-care perspective if the actual risk is 37% for 30 years. If less than 60% of the population would take the antiviral drugs or the attack rate is about 50%, the investment would not be cost-effective from this perspective. Conclusion: Risk perception, realistic coverage among population and size of a pandemic are crucial parameters and highly decisive for the investment decision.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness, dynamic model, infectious diseases, influenza pandemic, mathematical modelling


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?




Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.