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The European Journal of Public Health Advance Access published online on May 4, 2006
The European Journal of Public Health, doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckl067
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.
Received February 9, 2006
Accepted March 23, 2006

Article

The Synthetic Evaluation Model for Analysis of Flooding Hazards

Hongzhuan Tan 1 *, Weiwei Ping 2, Tubao Yang 1, Shuoqi Li 1, Aizhong Liu 1, Jia Zhou 1, Jamila Groves 3, and Zhenqiu Sun 1

1 School of Public Health, Central South University, Xiangya Road, Changsha, Hunan, 410008, People's Republic of China
2 School of Public Health, Central South University, Xiangya Road, Changsha, Hunan, 410008, People's Republic of China; Department of Preventive Medicine, Changzhi Medical College, Yanan Road, Changzhi, Shanxi, 046000, People's Republic of China
3 North Middlesex University Hospital, Sterling Way, Edmonton, London N18, UK

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Hongzhuan Tan, E-mail: tanhz66{at}hotmail.com


  Abstract

Background: Although many previous epidemiological studies have reported the incidence of diseases, mortality rate and economic losses after natural disasters, none of these studies has been comprehensive enough. Our aim was to establish a synthetic evaluation model (SEM) that can be used to analyze flood hazards.

Methods: Initial evaluation indicators were selected using systematic and literature data analysis. These indicators were tested with single or multiple variable analyses. Final evaluation indicators and their weights were determined using the Delphi procedure. We established a SEM of flood hazards using the hierarchy method and tested the model using jack-knife analysis.

Results: The SEM on flood hazards consists of 6 first-rank indicators and 24 second-rank indicators. First-rank indicators were: direct casualties (w = 0.2123), the increased incidence and prevalence rate of the disease (w = 0.1715), excess mortality rate (w = 0.1745), mental injury (w = 0.1038), epidemic focus expansion (w = 0.1572) and economic loss (w = 0.1807). The agreement of the model reached 98.2% tested with the jack-knife analysis.

Conclusion: A SEM of flood hazards was established with an agreement of 98.2%, which can be used to evaluate the hazards, and assist public health-care workers provide appropriate flood disaster management.

Keywords: Delphi method; flood hazards; jack-knife analysis; synthetic evaluation.
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